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The Magic Formula

Posted on 23.09.2011 by Bart Wauters

In Spain, during this pre-election time, some candidates would be less nervous if they had a magic formula to predict the outcome. In the U.S.A, they already have this formula: Professor Allan Witman, of the American University in Washington, has accurately predicted the election of each U.S. President since Ronald Reagan in 1984. The formula, developed in 1981, even worked in 1992, when everybody thought that George Bush senior -having defeated the Iraqi troupes in Kuwait- was going to win the elections quite comfortably. Bill Clinton, an unknown candidate at the time, commissioned Lichtman’s book ‘Keys to the White House’ to evaluate whether it was worthwhile to run for President…

Witman’s system contemplates 13 ‘keys’ or theses to be used in order to pave the way to the White House.  When five (or less) of these theses are not correct, the outgoing president (or his party’s candidate) is re-elected.  When six (or more) are not correct, the opposing candidate wins.

Obama in 2012

Witman has already made a pronouncement regarding Obama’s re-election in 2012, and he has said that he cannot see how the current president could lose. According to Witman, at this point 9 out of the 13 theses are already accurate (marked in red), that is, only four are not accurate, what would be sufficient for Obama’s re-election.

After the intermediate elections, the President’s party holds more seats in Congress than in past elections.

1. There is no competition for the presidential office within the party.
2. The candidate is the outgoing President.
3. There is no third independent political party running for the presidential office (such as Ross Perot in 1992 or Ralph Nader in 2000).
4. Economy is not in recession (according to Witman, unresolved).
5. The real growth per capita during the current mandate is equal or greater than the average growth during the two preceding mandates.
6. The outgoing Government has carried out great internal changes (public health, economic stimuli).
7. There is no social agitation in the country.
8. The outgoing Government is not plagued by scandals.
9. The outgoing Government has not made major mistakes in foreign or military affairs.
10. The outgoing Government has achieved some success in foreign or military affairs (Osama bin Laden).
11. The candidate for the outgoing party has great charisma or is a national hero. (In this aspect, Witman has ‘failed’ Obama for his lack of leadership in the debate on public health).
12. The opposing party does not have a candidate with great charisma or who is a national hero.

Obviously, some doubt the soundness of the thirteen-key theory; as well as Witman’s rating of Obama’s achievements. But it is hard to deny a theory that has hit the target on 7 consecutive occasions, even in 2000 with George Bush junior…

The 13 keys to the ‘Moncloa’

I invite you to apply Witman’s theory to Spain’s political candidates, so that on 20-N you will know whether this magic formula is also valid in this country.